AI infrastructure will more than double the size of the chip industry, SEMI now believes. The association’s updated outlook puts semiconductor revenue above $2T by 2030, roughly twice the level it once projected for that year.
Data center orders for advanced logic, high-bandwidth memory and enterprise solid-state drives are driving the revision, and they are inflating the tool market along with it.
Equipment spending forecasts moved up across the board. Wafer fab tool outlays are expected to reach $220B in 2028. That compares with $117B recorded last year and the $200B SEMI had previously anticipated. Test gear is seen hitting $23.5B in 2028 and packaging tools $10B, both above earlier calls.
Clark Tseng, SEMI senior director of market intelligence, presented the outlook in Taipei on the eve of SEMICON Taiwan. He expects revenue to surpass $1.5T this year, though growth stays lopsided while phone and PC shipments remain under pressure. Materials purchases should climb at double-digit rates this year and next, reaching $83B and then $92B, with Taiwan supplying about 30 percent of that demand in 2027.
