The semiconductor industry crossed a threshold this year that its own trade body had penciled in for 2030. Global chip revenue passed $1T within the first eight months of 2026, and SEMI now expects $1.5T for the full year.
Ajit Manocha, the group’s president and chief executive, told a SEMICON West audience in San Francisco this week that the market could reach $2T to $3T by 2035. He noted the shape of the curve: 50 years to reach $500B, then five years to double it. Joe Stockunas, who runs SEMI Americas, opened the conference with a toast to the milestone.
The capacity pipeline behind that forecast is visible. Of 102 fabs due to start operations by 2029, 82 are already under construction, and SEMI counts 479 operating data centers with another 77 planned.
The forecast lands in an awkward moment. Chip stocks lost roughly $1T in market value over four days this week as investors questioned whether AI infrastructure spending can keep compounding at this rate, and memory shares fell hardest.
Manocha’s argument is that the buildout is anchored in physical plants rather than order books. Construction schedules slip, but 82 sites with concrete poured are a harder commitment than a purchase order. He also conceded the obvious: five years is a long time in this industry, and anything could happen between now and 2035.
